Bharti Airtel, LTIMindtree, Adani Ports, Hindalco, and Infosys were the top gainers in the Nifty 50. While Ultratech Cements, Adani Ports, BPCL, Tata Motors, and Tata Consumer Products were the major losers in the Nifty 50 on June 21.

“We expect Rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on strong US Dollar and surge in US treasury yields. Disappointing manufacturing and services PMI data from Germany and Eurozone may further strengthen the Dollar. Renewed geopolitical tensions may further pressurize the Rupee. However, FII inflows and any further intervention by RBI may support the Rupee at lower levels. Traders may take cues from PMI and existing home sales data from the US. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 83.20 to Rs 84,” said Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

Courtesy: NSE

Courtesy: NSE

“Participation in gold has started to increase. This may lead to a price correction as some participants unwind their positions. This may lead to price correction as some participants unwind their positions. We believe that gold will consolidate at its current price. Nonetheless, it remains a favourable investment opportunity. Currently, we are observing a rally of up to Rs 73,500. On the downside, gold may experience a correction down to Rs 71,800 levels,” said Chintan Mehta, CEO of Abans Holdings.

Courtesy: BSE

“We attended Mahindra Group’s Analyst Day meet, where the company discussed its current positioning and how it will capture mega-growth trends evolving with the help of the technology ecosystem. The management also addressed the factors that it was lacking earlier versus peers: a) adequate diversification of the asset mix, which is concentrated towards wheels; b) they were late adopters of technology; c) volatility in asset quality. Considering all these factors, the company has undertaken calibrated steps to expand & diversify its portfolio, improve customer accessibility (through branch expansion, building partnerships, and the Super app), and offer the right products in a timely manner through a seamless digital journey by adopting technology. Underwriting and collection functions have been strengthened, and the focus has been to acquire prime affluent customers, as asset quality is of paramount importance. This would result in credit costs gradually falling in the medium term. The company is focusing on improving realisation through fee and distribution income to offset lower yields in the case of prime customers. The company gave confidence that it is gradually embarking on the turnaround path to deliver sustainable and predictable performance going forward, unlike in the past, when businesses reported volatile performance,” said Sharekhan on Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services.

“We believe JLR’s long-term target of 15% EBIT margin is aggressive and a lot hinges on how its EV products are accepted, especially when EV profitability for global peers has been cause for concern. With net debt issue behind it, management’s focus on ROCE target of >22% in FY25 is a positive, in our view, and will be a catalyst, although the near-term demand and FCF outlook for Q1 remains muted. Despite JLR’s market share in global premium segment declining from 6.1% in CY20 to 5.4% in CY23, its revenue share increased from 8% to 10%, driven by a richer product mix. We reiterate Accumulate with a target price of Rs 1,100 based on a SOTP method. We value JLR at 2.5x FY26E adj EV/EBITDA, implying 8.0x target P/E, which is at a premium to BMW and Mercedes, but at a 30% discount to Porsche. While Porsche has a higher EBIT margin of 17.7% as on CY23 , its ROCE is similar to JLR at 20-25%. We value India CV at 11.0x June 2026E EV/ EBITDA, India PV (ICE+EV) at 15.0x June 2026E EV/ EBITDA, and JLR at 2.5x June 2026E adj EV/ EBITDA. (please refer to our report, Aggressive PV market share target, on 12 June 2024),” said Elara Securities on Tata Motors.

“We met with the management of Bajaj Auto, wherein the management gave a detailed overview of its 2W/3W/EV businesses. The management expects African volume to continue to be under pressure due to currency devaluation; however, the absence of African volume has been offset by a better mix in its international volume. Its Triumph launch has been well received in the US and UK, its key markets. The management aims to gradually scale up the production of Triumph to ~10k units/month (currently at ~6k units/month). The company launched E-3W in Q3FY24 in certain markets, where it has become one of the leading players, aided by its strong brand value. Additionally, E-3W profitability is on par with ICE powertrain, while the path towards profitability for E-scooters will be gradual. BJAUT remains optimistic on its growth prospects, which will be led by a robust product portfolio for domestic and international markets.

We foresee healthy demand from rural and urban markets, driven by new launches across categories and a strong presence in the 125+cc space. Positive demand momentum coupled with network expansion in E-3W/2W shall further aid in volume expansion. Factoring this in, we estimate its revenue/EBITDA/APAT to grow at a CAGR of 13.8%/18.4%/16.7% over FY24-FY26E. Given the high growth rate in E-scooters/3W, market share expansion, and consistent mix improvement, we change our rating from ‘Sell’ to ‘Hold’ and revise our target price upwards to Rs 9,984, valuing the company at 27x (20x earlier), factoring in the high growth rate in the EV and premium segments,” said Swarnendu Bhushan, Co-Head of Research at Prabhudas Lilladher.

“WTI Crude oil futures rose for the fourth consecutive day and are poised for the second weekly gain in a row as heightened geo-political tensions propped up the risk premium. Data released on Thursday showed that US crude stockpiles declined by 2.547 million barrels last week, while gasoline and distillate stocks also experienced surprise drawdowns. Meanwhile, a forecast from the American Automobile Association for a record 71 million Americans to travel over the US Fourth of July holiday period. In the Middle East, Israeli forces advanced deeper into the Gaza Strip city of Rafah, and an exchange of fire happened between Hezbollah in Lebanon, raising geopolitical tensions in the region that could disrupt oil flows,” said Kaynat Chainwala, Assistant Vice President of Commodity Research at Kotak Securities.

Courtesy: NSE

All the top five gainers in the Nifty 50 were IT companies as Accenture reported its quarterly results. LTIMindtree, Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies, TCS, and Infosys were the top gainers. Coal India, HUL, ONGC, Tata Motors, and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the major losers in the Nifty 50 on June 21.

The NSE Nifty 50 opened 0.40% at 23,661, while the BSE Sensex opened 251 points or 0.32% at 77,729.48.

“Spot gold surged on Thursday to a two-week-high level of $2366 on the Fed rate cut bets. The rate cut speculation was fueled once again as the Swiss National Bank cut interest rates for the second straight time and the US data turned out to be weaker than expected across the board. The US housing starts, weekly job and Philadelphia Fed business outlook data fell short of expectations. Housing start recorded the slowest gain in four years, and jobless claims were around a ten-month low. 

Earlier, in an unexpected move, the Swiss National Bank lowered borrowing costs for the second time as the bank grappled with a strong euro amid subdued inflation. The Bank of England kept its rate unchanged at a 16-year high of 5.25% on Thursday with a 7-2 vote of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), as 2 members voted for a rate cut. China’s People’s Bank of China kept the key rate steady, too,” said Praveen Singh, Associate Vice President of Fundamental Currencies and Commodities at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas. 

“Gold is expected to touch $2385 resistance in the near term, though taking out $2400 mark will be a tall order unless major US data show further weakness. Today’s major US data include S&P Global US manufacturing, services, and composite PMIs. Support is at $2343/$2318.”

On Thursday, Nifty bounced back sharply from the day’s low, closing on a positive note. Bank Nifty continued to shine amid short covering and value buying, supported by a strong Indian economy, robust balance sheets, and cheap valuations. “Banking stocks have decent support at the 51300 and 50771 levels. The global market is optimistic about the Fed’s easing cycle, with the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicating a 65% probability of lower rates by September 18. The S&P 500 reached a new high, and Nifty IT may gain traction following Accenture’s strong AI demand. Fertilizer stocks surged on GST removal reports, and MapMyIndia hit a record high due to its dominant market share and growth opportunities. FIIs have been net buyers of Rs. 10893 crore this week. Nifty is expected to trade between 23000 – 24000, with significant resistance at 24000 and support at 23000. Recommended trades include buying Nifty at CMP with targets up to 24250 and Bank Nifty with targets up to 53500. PI Industries, MGL, and NALCO are bullish on corrective declines, while RBL Bank is recommended for a momentum play with targets up to 301,” said Prashanth Tapse, Senior Vice President of Research at Mehta Equities.

On Thursday, technically, after a muted opening throughout the day, the markets hovered between 23450–23620 and 77100–77600 levels. In the last couple of days, the markets have witnessed a narrow range activity, which indicates indecisiveness between the bulls and the bears. “We believe that the current market texture is non-directional perhaps traders are waiting for either side breakout. On the higher side, 23680/77800 would be the immediate breakout level, while below 23450/77100, the selling pressure is likely to accelerate. Above 23650/77700, the market could move up till 23750-23850/78000-78200. However, below 23450/77100 the market is likely to retest level of 23350-23300/76800-76700,” said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

On Thursday, Bank Nifty continued its strong momentum and managed to hold the support at 51,200-51,000. “The bullish momentum is likely to continue, and dips should be utilized to buy the index targeting 52,200/52,600. The lower-end support is placed at 51,000, where the highest open interest is built up on the put side. A break below this level will only dampen the bullish sentiment,” said Kunal Shah, Senior Technical & Derivative Analyst at LKP Securities.

“We believe that the current market texture is non-directional perhaps traders are waiting for either side breakout. On the higher side, 23650/77700 would be the immediate breakout level while below 23450/77100 the selling pressure is likely to accelerate. Above 23650/77700, the market could move up till 23750-23800/78000-78200. However, below 23450/77100 the market is likely to retest level of 23320-23300/76800-76700,” said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities. 

Foreign institutional investors (FII) bought shares net worth Rs 415.30 crore. Meanwhile, domestic institutional investors (DII) sold shares net worth Rs 325.81 crore on June 20, 2024, according to the provisional data available on the NSE.

WTI crude prices were trading at $81.28 up by 0.05%, while Brent crude prices were trading at $85.66 up by 0.03%, on Friday morning.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar’s value against a basket of six foreign currencies, was trading flat at 105.64 on Friday morning.

The Wall Street or US markets closed on a mixed note after returning from a holiday. The S&P 500 hit a fresh record high and later closed below its previous close as the Nvidia rally took a breather. The broader market index, the S&P 500, fell 0.25% to close at 5,473.17. Similarly, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite pulled back 0.79% to settle at 17,721.59. Bucking the trend, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 299.90 points, or 0.77%, to end at 39,134.76.